Nokia Windows Phone 7

It doesn’t matter if Nokia launches a Windows Phone…

by Ben Smith on 9th February 2011

  Comment Icon19

A consensus is forming that Nokia and new CEO Stephen Elop are going to announce something big on Friday. It’s rumoured to be a Windows Phone 7 announcement, specifically one for North America where Nokia is mostly ignored.

If they do there’ll be an explosion in the tech press… and I’ll be liberally hitting ‘Mark All Read’ in Google Reader.

Because it doesn’t matter… not in isolation.

A Microsoft-powered Nokia device could be great – I’d love one. It could be a delight to use, but I see two possibilities for such a combo:

  1. A stop-gap until Symbian and MeeGo are ‘ready’. Integration with the existing Nokia eco-system (Ovi store, Ovi services and developer platforms) would be minimal. This would just be about selling devices in the US.
  2. A new smart phone platform ‘forever’. Symbian is relegated to dumb-phone territory and the new OS provides the platform for everything up to ‘mobile computing’ (where MeeGo lives). Windows Phone gets the full Nokia treatment and runs Qt (the software ‘layer’ that already provides compatibility between Symbian and MeeGo).

Both start with a single Windows-powered device, but the consequences are interesting…

Stop-Gap Option

This sells some devices, pacifies the tech press and does some emergency repairs to Nokia’s brand image in the US. But it doesn’t build a legion of loyal North American Nokia users… it just re-enforces the Windows Phone platform. When the time comes to switch back to the ‘master plan’ (or any time HTC offers a better hardware / price combination) consumers will go as easily as they came.

See you again in 2 years for the same conversation.

‘Brave New World’ Option

This offers a way forward longer-term, but it emasculates the Ovi services. Windows Phone 7 has its own marketplace, email, cloud platform and IM service. How would Nokia promote its own offerings, especially if they only worked on Nokia devices (because of Qt)?

Nokia can’t just be a hardware vendor… customers need to move easily between platforms and developers need a common language. More than that though, it’s about the money… To continue as a top-tier player Nokia needs app revenue, content revenue and all the things that come next (like financial services).

Apple has this. RIM has this. Google has this. Nokia must too.

So does it matter if Nokia announces a Windows Phone? No. It matters how they answer the question “what next?”


Image credit: The Nokia Blog

  • http://www.rickycadden.com Ricky Cadden

    An excellent post, for sure. This is something that many of the people clamoring for Nokia to pick up Android (myself included, at some point) often miss. As Vanjoki said, it’s a short term strategy that doesn’t really solve any problems – it only sweeps them under the rug temporarily.

    Worse yet, it relegates Nokia to a simple hardware manufacturer – unless they can somehow manage to integrate Ovi into Android, it’s a complete waste of resources, both for the future and for all the past resources that have been sunk into Ovi.

    To be honest, I don’t see Nokia picking up any other platform. Unfortunately, I don’t have any real suggestions as to what they should do to keep using Symbian/Meego and not continue to sink. Guess that’s why I’m not CEO. :)

  • http://whatleydude.com James Whatley

    This:

    “…and I’ll be liberally hitting ‘Mark All Read’ in Google Reader.”

  • Anonymous

    I’m very interested to see what Nokia plans to announce. Win Phone 7 doesn’t really make them any more relevant in the mobile ecosystem.

    A partnership/merger with Intel is more along the lines of what Nokia needs. Merge into a cash-rich company and use the cash to innovate by developing the Meego ecosystem. Similar to what happened with Palm.

  • PedroStephano

    My thoughts are that this situation really bears watching. “The future looks bright” is not the statement most applicable to either Windows (in need of a mobile replacement for their desktop income stream) or Nokia (they need a future *everything* after some doldrum times) so it will be very interesting to see what hatches. And, as you rightly say, what’s the one after that?

  • Anonymous

    Integrating Ovi into Android isn’t impossible – or even difficult really. Once the services are built in Qt, Nokia can adopt and official stance on Qt for Android (currently community run I believe) and create an Android device with Ovi Maps and Store, their own UI “withOUT Google” (yes, I’m saying Nokia can do a UI. Just agree with me for the sake of argument there Ricky) and differentiate itself based on UI/hardware. Of course, the same could be said for WP7 – MSFT just has to open the kernel a bit to the Qt team and you can develop Qt apps/services on top of WP7.

    Now, all that said, I agree with you Ricky – I just don’t see them picking up another platform just to get some marketshare in the US (or elsewhere). I really do hope the ‘solution’ is bigger and something that just hasn’t been discussed yet…something that makes the world go “Ah crap, the sleeping bear is awake!”

  • http://twitter.com/pontoflutuante pontoflutuante

    edit

  • http://twitter.com/pontoflutuante pontoflutuante

    While porting Qt to a new platform is entirely possible, it’s wise to take a look at what it took to port Qt to both Symbian and Maemo (now Meego). While the latter was reasonably fast, Qt for Symbian still suffers from several issues caused by porting Qt into a completely new OS. Since WP7 doesn’t share much of its code with Windows Mobile 6.5 (which has Qt), a port would certainly be a big hurdle and not something that could be done quickly.

    As everybody, we at Nokia are also anxiously waiting for what’s going to happen, but my personal opinion is that the company ends up adopting a 3rd. party platform, it should adopt it fully and not try to port yet another layer on top of it.

    Daniel

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  • http://benjam.in Ben Smith

    Thanks Ricky. It’s certainly a tricky one.

    The more I think about it though the more I struggle to see the value of Ovi services being ported to platform with identical (and native and more mature) equivalents. And that’s even before you start to consider 3rd party developers issues with it…

  • http://benjam.in Ben Smith

    But why would a Nokia Android (or WP7) device without the platform’s native features be even remotely appealing to consumers. The UI may be less horrible than Symbian but you lose the benefit of everything that’s already available to consumers.

  • Anonymous

    From an Android perspective, you can still sell it as “Android” and it’d be like Sense or MotoBlur with Ovi services. Remember, stock Android is a back seat UI to the OEM customizations (at least in the USA).

    For WP7, it’d be a mix of MSFT’s native features + Ovi Services and Qt apps…as long as MSFT opens up and adopts Qt.

    Think abuot what this could me to the developer: Qt apps can run on Symbian, WP7, MeeGo, Windows, Linux Desktop and OSX…

  • http://benjam.in Ben Smith

    That’s a fascination point I hadn’t considered… If MS opened up to Qt there could be a real migration of talent and consumers. It might be a way to avoid the rather gloomy options I presented.

    It hadn’t even occurred to me as a possibility. It feels incredibly unlikely (and I can’t see why MS would do it – what’s in it for them?) but I guess we should look for someone senior from MS at tomorrow’s session.

  • Anonymous

    I agree – it’s a long shot due to the “arrogance distortion field” that has Ballmer as its centerpoint BUT where does WP7 rank on the developer priority list? Seriously, for devs not getting money from MSFT, devs would be hardpressed to have real answers to decline coding in a language to support 3 mobile OSes and 3 desktop OSes. It opens up the entire (non US) world of devs to WP7…in theory that is…

  • Anonymous

    I agree – it’s a long shot due to the “arrogance distortion field” that has Ballmer as its centerpoint BUT where does WP7 rank on the developer priority list? Seriously, for devs not getting money from MSFT, devs would be hardpressed to have real answers to decline coding in a language to support 3 mobile OSes and 3 desktop OSes. It opens up the entire (non US) world of devs to WP7…in theory that is…

  • http://benjam.in Ben Smith

    Absolutely. Would require some back-pedalling on whatever answers the MS spin machine gave to people asking ‘why should we bother’ about WP7…

  • http://www.rickycadden.com Ricky Cadden

    There certainly isn’t a value of Ovi services to the consumer – Nokia has yet to really show why Ovi is worth the investment, in my opinion. The ecosystem is non-existent and the vast majority of the Ovi services are crap, and even most Nokians realize it.

    The value would be for Nokia to continue to have an ecosystem to talk about – aside from Ovi, Nokia is a hardware manufacturer, and nothing more.

  • http://benjam.in Ben Smith

    For consumers I agree, but the Ovi store (at least) is a source of revenue. Ovi Music must be too with potential to monetise the others (by ads if nothing else). Can Nokia give-up on this revenue?

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